|
|
Post by deepsouth on Jul 9, 2019 17:33:37 GMT -6
Just where the hell is it? All I see on radar is a few radar blips of rain near the beaches....sorta standard for this time of year isn’t it? Just went into gulf today. I don't expect a name till Friday. Gonna churn in warm water then drift west . NO to pcola is where I think it's going. The showers today were out of the East and alot of lightning. It must be here. We just lost power. Wind blowing pretty good. Lots of thunder but no rain, yet. |
|
|
|
Post by greybeard on Jul 9, 2019 22:09:01 GMT -6
I pay attention when Dr Jeff masters speaks: www.wunderground.com/cat6/92L-Moving-Gulf-Mexico-May-Develop-Tropical-DepressionAll three of our top models for predicting tropical cyclone formation—the European, GFS, and UKMET models—predicted with their 0Z Tuesday runs that a tropical depression or tropical storm would develop in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. By Thursday, steering currents over the Gulf of Mexico will shift, resulting in 92L turning to the west and moving at a forward speed of about 5 mph. On this track, the models agree that the system should make landfall somewhere along the Louisiana or Texas coast on Saturday.
The main impediment to development would appear to be how far 92L pushes offshore, the resulting level of land interaction, and the amount of time 92L has over water. The system will be disorganized when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, and it will likely take the disturbance a day or two to take advantage of the favorable conditions for development and become a tropical storm. The 0Z and 6Z Tuesday runs of the GFS model showed 92L hugging the coast that did not manage to get vertically aligned, resulting in limited development of a very broad and poorly-organized storm. The 12Z Tuesday runs of the SHIPS and LGEM intensity models, which use the GFS model as input, predicted that 92L would peak on Friday with top winds of 50 mph and 35 mph, respectively. The 0Z Tuesday runs of the European and UKMET models predicted 92L would be able to push farther offshore, resulting in formation of a tropical storm that might approach Category 1 hurricane strength by Friday.
Given the major differences between the model solutions, there is higher than usual uncertainty in the forecast, since small-scale details of where thunderstorms develop during the next day will ultimately determine how far offshore 92L will ultimately get, how much land interaction will occur, and how much time the system has over water. At this point, we can be confident that much of Gulf Coast will get a soaking, and that we will likely see a Tropical Storm Barry in the Gulf of Mexico by Friday. Levi Cowan has some excellent tweets and a Monday night video discussion that has more details on the forecast. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 92L on Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.Typical path analog of June/July storms that began in or entered the Gulf of Mexico:  Just too many variables to make a good guess tho.. |
|
|
|
Post by M-5 on Jul 10, 2019 5:59:31 GMT -6
Just went into gulf today. I don't expect a name till Friday. Gonna churn in warm water then drift west . NO to pcola is where I think it's going. The showers today were out of the East and alot of lightning. It must be here. We just lost power. Wind blowing pretty good. Lots of thunder but no rain, yet. Looks like my prediction is close this morning. Saying NO could get 11" |
|
|
|
Post by greybeard on Jul 10, 2019 17:42:48 GMT -6
Anything that traves East To West across the Norther GoM will hit N.O. simply because Lower La sticks out so far into the gulf. This afternoon's NHC model:  |
|
