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Post by M-5 on Jul 15, 2019 8:32:27 GMT -6
Before modern technology existed folks watched the local noon farm report with weather forecast. I vividly remember them. The plans to plant or harvest were made based off of this. Our forefathers also knew more about the signs and the meaning of patterns with minimal education.
Cutting hay was mentioned to me with 50% Chance. I have no issues cutting on 50% if I see something in the forecast. I also believe you cut on schedule within reason. It's taken a few years for me to do this because I was always looking at the rain % instead of the pressure system. What do you look for?
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Post by greybeard on Jul 15, 2019 10:43:43 GMT -6
Them little bugs you see buzzing around a light at night. They won't fly the night before a rain.
We got 2" of rain between 2am and dawn, and raining again now. Barry's swinging a wide loop.
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Post by randy on Jul 17, 2019 8:45:57 GMT -6
I predict the weather here for the next week is going to be hot.
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Post by 1982vett on Jul 17, 2019 9:24:01 GMT -6
I predict the weather here for the next week is going to be hot. Prolly be wet or dry too... |
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Post by greybeard on Jul 17, 2019 9:48:39 GMT -6
I predict there is a 100% chance that we will have some weather.
I've never really understood that percentage chance of moisture thing.
30% chance of rain for this area today..
Does that mean there's a 30% chance it will rain on the whole area..or a 30% chance it will rain on 30% of the area?
Or 100% chance it will rain on 30% of the area..or 100% chance it will rain for 30% of the day? Or a 30% chance it might rain on 100% of the area for 30% of the day?
And if it does rain, doesn't that really mean, that there was actually 100% chance?
What about the other 70%...does that area and/or that parcel of time just not count?
If it turns out I'm not included in that 30%, I'm gonna be offended and I think somebody owes me an apology for excluding me...
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Post by randy on Jul 17, 2019 11:51:10 GMT -6
Well after a couple of hours of blowing tractor filters and radiators out its hot.
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Post by okie on Jul 17, 2019 12:22:15 GMT -6
One of very few things that I miss about California is the weather forecast. You could glance at the ten day and whatever it said was coming was pretty close to what you got. Here it's pretty much a waste of time to even look.
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Post by bulltrader on Jul 17, 2019 17:02:05 GMT -6
Greybeard,a forecaster once told me it means 30% of the forecast area would get at least something. Could be just a few drops.
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Post by greybeard on Jul 17, 2019 17:57:41 GMT -6
So...why don't they just say there's a 70% chance of dry weather and why don't they say it's going to be mostly sunny instead of 'partly cloudy'?
Damn cynics and their negative waves again (Moriarity)...
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Post by JMJ on Jul 17, 2019 18:09:22 GMT -6
I predict there is a 100% chance that we will have some weather. I've never really understood that percentage chance of moisture thing. 30% chance of rain for this area today.. Does that mean there's a 30% chance it will rain on the whole area..or a 30% chance it will rain on 30% of the area? Or 100% chance it will rain on 30% of the area..or 100% chance it will rain for 30% of the day? Or a 30% chance it might rain on 100% of the area for 30% of the day? And if it does rain, doesn't that really mean, that there was actually 100% chance? What about the other 70%...does that area and/or that parcel of time just not count? If it turns out I'm not included in that 30%, I'm gonna be offended and I think somebody owes me an apology for excluding me... It means there’s a 30% above average chance that it will rain. What is average? Maybe the last 20, 50, 100 years? Or as long as they’ve been keeping records? I still don’t know exactly except that the higher the percentage the more likely it is to rain. |
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